The Future

In 50 years all the modern churches will be gone.

In most communities around the country you will find individual churches that cater to specific ethnic groups. Most often these churches are made up of immigrants to this country who gather together because of their common culture. However, you will not find an Hispanic church in a community with no Hispanics. That seem rather obvious, doesn't it? Fifty years from now there will be no "moderns" left in the United States, we will all be dead. If there are no longer any moderns, there will be no need for modern churches. The modern churches WILL disappear, but "The Church," the bride of Christ, will survive. Individual congregations within specific cultures have come and gone for 2,000 years. That will not change until Jesus returns.

Three scenarios for the future of the modern church...

1 - KEEP DOING WHAT YOU ARE DOING. Keep ministering to the same people in the same way. The average age of these congregations will continue to rise as the "moderns" continue to age. Eventually these churches will decline and close as the moderns disappear. The emerging population of post-moderns will go elsewhere.
2 - MAKE A MAJOR CHANGE OF DIRECTION. Some churches will "get it" and begin to make significant changes. They may reach the post-moderns, but the side effect of making fast, drastic changes is that many of the people who are older (that would be us moderns) may leave the church because it no longer targets their culture.

3 - BEGIN MINISTRY ON TWO TRACKS. A middle ground would be to begin the process of running on two tracks simultaneously. Keep the programs and ministries that are still effective in reaching moderns for Christ. At the same time, begin to hire younger post-modern staff members and target the emerging generations with alternative services under the same banner of the existing church. In order for this to be successful, those leading the post-modern outreach must be given a measure of autonomy to proceed as necessary. [This may be the downfall of this approach. Unfortunately many Pastors and Elder boards may be unwilling to give the necessary freedom to the post-moderns.] If the church is successful with both tracks, the percentage of modern vs. post-modern ministries (and leadership) will gradually shift as time passes to reflect the makeup of the community as a whole. The church will eventually be transformed into a post-modern church. If the church fails at the "two track" option, the post-moderns will leave and the moderns will follow #1 above, and eventually the church will disappear.

What about the "Mega-churches?" What will happen to them?

We don't know for sure, but we need to say that a "post-modern mega-church" appears to be an oxymoron. Among post-moderns there is a real desire for community, and a feeling of being connected. Smaller and more intimate is the likely trend. Post-moderns are more likely in a given community to have 20 different churches of 250 people each, than one church of 5,000. A pastor I was visiting with recently made and interesting observation: "Maybe the mega-church is a 'boomer' phenomenon. The generation before didn't want it. The generation to come doesn't want it. Maybe it was just us 'boomers' that wanted it." If that is really the case... they will likely die out with the generation of modern baby-boomers. We suggest that these churches utilize their resources of both people and finances and begin aggressively pursuing "scenario #3" mentioned above! (more on this in "FAQ")

Closing thoughts from a Pastor's heart...
Let's picture a family owned business. One with a rich heritage of fine craftsmanship. For several generations they have made the highest quality buggies and horse drawn wagons. In fact the grand-children of the founder are now running the company. They see no reason this outstanding company shouldn't last for many more generations, and fully expect their children to carry on after them. One day something new arrives on the scene. People call it a "horseless carriage." Sales of their products begin to drop. There is nothing "wrong" with their wagons, they're just not what people are looking for any more. At this point the company has two options: they can continue what they have been doing successfully for many years and ignore this "new thing" (and eventually go out of business) or they can take their years of experience, adapt to the changes taking place around them, and move forward with a new product. Which will it be?

(Also visit the "FAQ" and Resources pages)